| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Stony Brook | 42-0 | 1447.0 | +84.8 | 1531.8 | 87.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Washington State | 13-36 | 1531.8 | -64.4 | 1467.4 | 43.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | California | 34-0 | 1434.9 | +141.1 | 1576.0 | 15.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 6-3 | 1576.0 | +9.7 | 1585.7 | 65.3% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Colorado State | 45-24 | 1585.7 | +11.2 | 1596.9 | 70.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Nevada | 44-10 | 1596.9 | +71.7 | 1668.6 | 76.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Fresno State | 23-0 | 1660.3 | +34.3 | 1694.6 | 69.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-7 | 1694.6 | +16.9 | 1711.5 | 70.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 6-38 | 1711.5 | -88.4 | 1623.1 | 75.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Boise State | 17-7 | 1623.1 | +34.0 | 1657.1 | 35.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | San José State | 25-3 | 1657.1 | +1.9 | 1659.0 | 80.6% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | New Mexico | 17-23 | 1659.0 | -18.0 | 1641.0 | 61.0% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | North Texas | 47-49 | 1632.6 | +9.6 | 1642.2 | 31.3% |