| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Portland State | 53-20 | 1490.3 | +127.4 | 1617.7 | 95.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | UCLA | 10-28 | 1617.7 | -61.1 | 1556.6 | 38.4% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | James Madison | 13-26 | 1556.6 | +18.8 | 1575.4 | 30.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Toledo | 16-41 | 1575.4 | -14.5 | 1561.0 | 43.7% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Texas State | 31-29 | 1561.0 | -18.4 | 1542.5 | 38.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Oregon State | 14-66 | 1542.5 | -73.0 | 1469.5 | 35.6% |